In 2023, the overall domestic dimethyl carbonate market will fluctuate and decline. The dimethyl carbonate market will decline by 12.5% throughout the year in 2023, with the largest amplitude during the year being 20.71%.
In the first half of 2023, the overall performance of the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was acceptable. In the first half of the year, the overall dimethyl carbonate market showed a volatile and rising trend. In January and February, the downstream demand for dimethyl carbonate was good, and the downstream phased stocking supported the rising market. On March 10, the high point of the year for dimethyl carbonate appeared. Then the demand loosened, and the market prices continued to adjust. In the first quarter, overall An increase of 2.86%. In April and May, demand was insufficient, and the dimethyl carbonate market as a whole continued the decline in March. In June, some domestic devices were shut down for maintenance, and the supply side of dimethyl carbonate was tight. The supply supported the upward movement of the market, and the overall increase in the second quarter was 5.56%.
In the second half of 2023, dimethyl carbonate continued to decline, and downstream demand continued to drag down the market. The focus of dimethyl carbonate continued to shift downward. Entering the fourth quarter, the market price of dimethyl carbonate has hovered at the bottom. In the second half of the year, dimethyl carbonate fell by 19.41%.
Dimethyl carbonate market forecast in 2024
First, let us compare the market trends of dimethyl carbonate in the past two years. It can be clearly seen from the market data comparison chart that the overall market price of dimethyl carbonate in 2023 is lower than the market level in 2022.
Judging from the market trends in the past two years, in 2022, the dimethyl carbonate market will fluctuate greatly. When the price of dimethyl carbonate reaches a high point,
When the market price goes lower, the high and low amplitude reaches 46.56%. Compared with 2022, in 2023, the overall amplitude of the dimethyl carbonate market has weakened, the market has fluctuated at a low level throughout the year, and the overall focus has shifted downward in the second half of the year. Therefore, currently, the dimethyl carbonate market is at its lowest level in the past two years.
In terms of production capacity: In 2022, domestic dimethyl carbonate device production capacity has become overcapacity. In 2022, domestic dimethyl carbonate production capacity will be put into operation intensively, and the overall supply of dimethyl carbonate market will increase.
In 2022, China’s total dimethyl carbonate production capacity will be approximately 160,000 tons/year, but the downstream demand-side transmission and transformation is slow. Entering 2023, some domestic dimethyl carbonate plants are still newly put into production, including 300,000 tons of Hualu Hengsheng (600426), 60,000 tons of Depu Chemical Phase II, and 100,000 tons of Satellite Petrochemical, totaling 460,000 tons. , at the end of the fourth quarter, it is expected that new devices will be put into production, so entering 2024, the overall production capacity and output of dimethyl carbonate will still be increasing. Although the increase in production capacity and output can optimize the transmission of the industrial chain, the supply pressure on factories will increase and downstream expectations will also become more important.
Technology and supply: At present, there are three main production processes for dimethyl carbonate in my country: PO transesterification method, EO transesterification method, and methanol oxidative carbonylation method. Among them, PO transesterification method is the most used in domestic production. It is widely used. The PO transesterification method can simultaneously produce dimethyl carbonate and propylene glycol. The production process is mature and helps factories better control production costs and profit distribution. In 2023, the annual construction level of dimethyl carbonate will be around seven levels. Although the overall construction level is not high, looking at the whole year, there is a certain supply pressure in the dimethyl carbonate market most of the time.
Therefore, whether the market can promptly adjust the transmission relationship between supply and demand is also the key to market trends.
Demand: Starting from 2019, my country’s downstream demand areas for dimethyl carbonate have begun to change quietly. Electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate have become the main consumer terminals of dimethyl carbonate. In 2023, the largest downstream consumption areas of dimethyl carbonate in China will still be electrolyte solvents and polycarbonate, with their combined proportion accounting for about 85%. Rubber additives and other fields account for about 15%.
With the booming development of electric vehicles and mobile equipment, it is expected that production capacity in the electric vehicle field will continue to increase in the future. Therefore, in 2024, the electrolyte solvent market is expected to continue to support the dimethyl carbonate market. The demand for polycarbonate downstream of dimethyl carbonate will also increase year by year. The non-light and gas method uses dimethyl carbonate to produce diphenyl carbonate through transesterification and then polycondensation to produce polycarbonate. No light and gas are used in the production process. Gas, safe and pollution-free. With the improvement of my country’s environmental protection requirements, the use of dimethyl carbonate to produce polycarbonate using non-light and gas methods may gradually become the mainstream production process in the future. Therefore, in the long term, the market will have a strong demand for dimethyl carbonate. The demand is still supportive.
Finally, the traditional markets downstream of dimethyl carbonate, including coatings, adhesives, and first-level developers, are also expected to provide immediate support for dimethyl carbonate.
To sum up, in 2024, there will still be expectations for the domestic dimethyl carbonate market. First, although the expansion of production capacity will bring about increased output and supply pressure, the overall completeness of the industrial chain of the dimethyl carbonate factory will be higher, which will be more conducive to boosting market confidence. Secondly, in terms of demand, the new energy field has gradually divided the downstream of dimethyl carbonate into three sectors, electrolyte solvent, polycarbonate, and traditional downstream. In 2024, the electrolyte solvent market still has development possibilities. In the future, The new polycarbonate process conversion also has the conditions for implementation. With the gradual recovery of the general environment, the rigid demand support given by the traditional market for dimethyl carbonate will gradually pick up. Therefore, let us look forward to a new blue sky for the dimethyl carbonate market in 2024.
Post time: Jan-09-2024