1. Price Trend
In March, the price of cyclohexanone in Shandong Province exhibited a trend of “rapid initial increase followed by consolidation at high levels.” In the first ten days of the month, the market surged rapidly due to multiple positive factors. After the middle of the month, the market experienced a slight correction due to macroeconomic factors and changes in supply and demand, before maintaining high levels. The cumulative increase for the month reached 31.03%.
2. Analysis of core influencing factors
Cost side: Raw material prices and geopolitical disturbances resonate, creating strong support.
Cyclohexanone’s core raw material is benzene, which accounts for a relatively high proportion of its cost. Therefore, the price trend of raw materials directly affects the production cost of cyclohexanone. In early March, escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East drove a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, which in turn led to a corresponding increase in benzene prices. This significantly increased the production cost of cyclohexanone, giving companies ample incentive to raise their prices, thus creating strong cost support.
After mid-March, as the geopolitical situation eased somewhat, crude oil prices corrected, and benzene prices subsequently fell. This weakened the marginal cost support and created conditions for a slight correction in cyclohexanone prices.
Supply and demand dynamics: From tight to loose, but the driving force for continued support remains uncertain.
First, looking at the supply side, after maintenance and reduced production, production resumed, and the market situation tightened and then eased again in stages. In early March, some mainstream plants entered planned maintenance, coupled with the reduced operating rates of some companies in the early stage, resulting in a contraction of effective market supply and low spot inventory, forming a tight balance in stages, which directly drove up prices rapidly.
In the latter part of the month, as maintenance equipment gradually restarted, market supply steadily rebounded, easing the previous tight supply situation and weakening the support from the supply side for prices.
On the demand side, with the arrival of spring, downstream industries such as adipic acid, nylon 66, and coatings, which produce cyclohexanone, enter their traditional peak season. This, coupled with the release of restocking demand for previously low-priced raw materials, led to a significant increase in essential purchases in the first ten days of the month, providing some support for prices. However, as prices rapidly surged to around 10,000 yuan, downstream enterprises faced increased cost pressures, causing a rapid cooling of their purchasing intentions. From mid-month onwards, purchases were mainly small, on-demand orders, and insufficient demand for high-priced goods was a major reason for the subsequent price decline after the initial surge.
3. Market Outlook
Analyzing from the supply, demand, and cost perspectives:
From the supply side, cyclohexanone (CHH) units that underwent maintenance have largely resumed production, and market supply will steadily increase, further weakening supply pressure and supporting prices. While downstream demand has improved somewhat due to the peak season, overall demand is unlikely to increase significantly, and high-priced supplies will be insufficient to meet demand, thus constraining overall demand. On the cost side, if crude oil and benzene prices remain high, they will continue to provide some cost support for CHH HH prices.
From a technical perspective:
In early March, the 10-day moving average of cyclohexanone crossed above the 20-day moving average, and all short-term (10-day) moving averages were higher than long-term (20-day) moving averages. From the beginning of March, the cyclohexanone market generally showed an upward trend. At the end of March, the 10-day moving average crossed below the 20-day moving average, therefore, the spot market price of cyclohexanone is likely to show a downward trend during the forecast period. Supporting indicators show that the 10-day and 20-day moving averages are at a low to medium level among the five price levels for cyclohexanone, suggesting that the price decline in the future will be limited. Close attention should be paid to fluctuations in crude oil prices, plant operation, and changes in downstream orders.
Post time: Apr-07-2026