The ammonium sulfate market is optimistic in 2025 and exports will still be the core growth driver in 2026.

Comparing the average ammonium sulfate market price on January 1 with the average ammonium sulfate market price on December 31, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price increased by 26.61% throughout the year in 2025. The highest value of ammonium sulfate during the year was 1,343 yuan/ton on June 24, and the lowest value during the year was 826 yuan/ton on January 1.

Market analysis in 2025

In 2025, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will first rise and then fluctuate and rise.

In the first half of 2025, the ammonium sulfate market will fluctuate and be dominated by upward trends. The market price of ammonium sulfate increased from January to February. Demand from downstream compound fertilizer companies has increased, downstream granule factories are actively replenishing supplies, and market transactions are heating up. The market price of urea has risen sharply, which is good for the domestic ammonium sulfate market. The market price of ammonium sulfate fell in March. The domestic ammonium sulfate market demand is weak, new orders in the market are decreasing, and downstream purchasing intentions are insufficient. International demand for ammonium sulfate has decreased and negative factors have increased. The market price of ammonium sulfate increased in April. Some caprolactam units were overhauled and market supply was reduced. Downstream pellet factories are more motivated to purchase and market demand is rising. The market price of ammonium sulfate fell weakly in May. Market demand is limited and transactions are weak. The ammonium sulfate market rose sharply in June, with an increase of more than 20%. Due to geopolitical events, urea production has been suspended and restricted in some countries. The global supply of nitrogen fertilizer has decreased, and international urea prices have risen sharply, which is positive for the ammonium sulfate market, and the domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen sharply.

In the second half of 2025, the ammonium sulfate market will first decline and then rise. The market price of ammonium sulfate continued to fall from July to September. The supply of ammonium sulfate in the market is sufficient, downstream inquiries have decreased, purchasing enthusiasm has weakened, and the market transaction atmosphere has been light. The export market is not doing well, companies are under pressure to ship goods, and the ammonium sulfate market is running weakly. Ammonium sulfate prices rose strongly from October to November. The operating rate of the caprolactam plant equipment decreased, the market supply of caprolactam-grade ammonium sulfate decreased, and manufacturers mainly raised prices, pushing up the price of ammonium sulfate. The ammonium sulfate market fell back in December. The transaction atmosphere in the ammonium sulfate market is weak, and downstream replenishment is on demand, and there is resistance to high prices.

According to the monthly K-column chart in 2025, it can be seen that the largest increase in ammonium sulfate during the year in 2025 was in June, with an increase of 20.97%. The biggest drop during the year was in December, with a drop of 10.79%.

2026 market outlook forecast

Availability

In recent years, China’s ammonium sulfate production capacity and output have maintained a growth trend. The total ammonium sulfate production capacity will reach about 30.5 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 12.17%. The total output will reach 27.924 million tons in 2025 and will increase to 34.622 million tons in 2027. The growth was mainly due to the commissioning of large-scale caprolactam units and the rapid growth of by-product capacity. From 2023 to 2025, there are approximately 34 ammonium sulfate plants planned to be built in my country, with a total production capacity of 4.4 million tons/year, of which caprolactam grade accounts for 88%.

Driven by the expansion of agricultural demand, expansion of industrial applications and environmental protection policies. The global ammonium sulfate production market size will maintain a certain growth, and the market in developing countries will grow more rapidly. It is expected that China’s ammonium sulfate production capacity will continue to increase in 2026. The annual compound growth rate in the next five years is expected to be 4.40%, which is slower than the past five years. Environmental protection policies and “double carbon” goals will promote the clearance of small and medium-sized production capacity and expand the advantages of leading companies. Caprolactam by-products will become the main source of supply, and its share of production capacity is expected to further increase by 2030.

Export situation

From January to November 2025, China’s total export volume of ammonium sulfate reached 19.36 million tons, an increase of 4.01 million tons over the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%. The total export volume was US$2.995 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31%. The total export volume for the year is expected to reach 21 million tons. From January to November 2025, China’s main exporting countries of ammonium sulfate are Brazil, Vietnam, Myanmar, Indonesia and Türkiye. The export direction is mainly South America and Southeast Asia. China exports the largest amount of ammonium sulfate to Brazil, accounting for 36.62% of total exports.

China is a major global supplier of ammonium sulfate, with its market share and influence continuously increasing. Coupled with the continued expansion of China’s ammonium sulfate production capacity, exports are expected to maintain growth in 2026, although the growth rate will be somewhat slower than before. The Americas region faces soil sulfur deficiency issues, and demand for ammonium sulfate is expected to continue to grow, with Brazil likely to remain the largest export destination. The maturation of extrusion granulation technology will also contribute to ammonium sulfate exports.

Summary and Outlook

In summary, the ammonium sulfate market outlook for 2025 is generally positive. Supply is ample, demand is primarily driven by agriculture, and industrial applications are showing significant growth. Technologically, green production technologies and high-purity products are the trend. Policy-wise, environmental standards are becoming stricter, but agricultural subsidies are likely to continue.

The ammonium sulfate market is expected to remain optimistic in 2026. The market anticipates ample supply, with exports remaining the main driver of growth, but prices may fluctuate due to environmental policies. Ammonium sulfate production capacity is expected to continue growing, but at a slower pace, primarily due to the commissioning schedule of caprolactam plants. Leading companies will expand their advantages, while small and medium-sized enterprises will seize market share through technological upgrades. Overall, the ammonium sulfate market will shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency, with exports remaining the core growth driver.