According to the commodity market analysis system of Sino-Trade, from July 29 to August 2, the domestic ethanol price fell by 0.21% in the cycle, and fell by 9.60% year-on-year. The demand side continued to be sluggish, the factory price reduction stimulated shipments, and the downstream purchasing power was limited, and the ethanol market was weak.
On the cost side, the domestic corn market price is stable but weak. Traders are more motivated to ship and gradually sell, but downstream buyers are cautious and purchase on demand, so the market volume is not large. There are few purchasing entities at ports, the volume arriving at ports remains low, there is not much demand for shipping, and traders are mainly slow to destock. Ethanol costs are affected by negative factors.
On the supply side, the operating rates of production enterprises in various regions vary greatly; the Zhenjiang Changxing plant will resume production around August 10; the Guotou Hailun plant is expected to shut down on August 3; there are no significant changes in the plants of other plants. The supply side of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side, liquor consumption is in the off-season; the purchase volume of anhydrous methyl ethyl ester has declined, mainly because Jiangsu Sipai EMC has reduced its load; there is no news that Shandong Jinyimeng’s ethyl acetate plant has a shutdown plan, the load of Taixing Jinjiang plant has decreased, and the utilization rate of ethyl ester capacity has decreased. It is expected that the purchase volume of general-grade ethanol will decrease. The short-term demand side of ethanol is affected by unfavorable factors.
For the future market forecast, the cost side is unfavorable, while the market supply remains abundant, and the overall shipment pressure is relatively large. It is expected that the domestic ethanol market will be weak in the short term.
Post time: Aug-05-2024