Entering 2026, the Chinese acrylic acid market did not experience the expected “strong start.” Instead, it fell into a volatile stalemate, caught between rising raw material costs and weak recovery in end-user demand, a situation consistent with the downward trend of “no effective rebound” throughout 2025.
Price trend:
Weekly Changes: Prices gradually stabilized after entering January 2026. As of January 20, the benchmark price of acrylic acid increased by 2.56% compared to the beginning of the month.
Cost side:
Propylene feedstock prices are rising: Propylene prices have been trending upward recently, with price ranges in Shandong province widening and upward pressure emerging. As a direct feedstock for acrylic acid, propylene accounts for over 60% of the cost; this round of price increases directly pushes up acrylic acid production costs.
Narrowing profit margins: Although acrylic acid prices have rebounded slightly, the increase is far lower than that of raw material propylene, leading to further compression of production profits. By the end of 2025, the industry’s profit per ton will have fallen to a low level. Under current cost pressures, small and medium-sized high-cost enterprises may face losses, forcing them to reduce or suspend production.
Supply Side:
The resumption of some production facilities (such as one unit in Zibo) has increased local supply, but the overall industry operating rate remains suppressed. Prices remaining below cost for an extended period have triggered capacity clearing, leading to maintenance shutdowns or delayed restarts for some companies.
Demand Side:
Downstream industries such as coatings and adhesives are in their traditional off-season, with procurement mainly focused on small, immediate orders. The export market is under pressure, with weak global demand and low-cost capacity competition from the Middle East constraining export growth.
Short-term Outlook:
Prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward bias, but upside potential is limited. Strong cost support will likely drive acrylic acid prices higher if propylene prices continue to strengthen. Once prices reach the cost line of 5800 yuan/ton, further downward pressure will increase, triggering supply contraction. Demand has not improved significantly, with downstream buyers adopting a wait-and-see approach, and some factories may shut down earlier than scheduled before the Spring Festival. The overcapacity situation remains unchanged; any rebound may stimulate the release of existing capacity, suppressing price increases.
Post time: Jan-20-2026