I. Price Trends
Caustic soda prices trended downwards throughout January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong province was 738 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month it was 636 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13.82%, and a decrease of 23.1% compared to the same period last year. On January 29th, the chlor-alkali index was 724 points, down 1 point from the previous day, down 65.98% from the highest point of 2128 points (October 24, 2021) within the cycle, and up 1.69% from the lowest point of 712 points (January 5, 2016). (Note: The cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present.)
2. Market Analysis
Caustic soda prices trended downwards throughout January. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was around 560-650 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu, prices remained stable at around 680-790 yuan/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices consolidated, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 2250-2350 yuan/ton (converted to 100% concentration). Alumina procurement prices continued to decline this month, with prices in the province cumulatively decreasing by 25 yuan/ton to 590 yuan/ton. Caustic soda supply was ample, with high operating rates, but downstream demand was weak, leading to a price drop. By the end of the month, supply was sufficient, but downstream alumina buyers showed limited activity, resulting in a stalemate in the market, with most purchases being made on an as-needed basis. The alumina market is expected to fluctuate with a slightly weaker bias in the near future. Furthermore, data shows that in 2025, my country’s cumulative caustic soda imports totaled 8,900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 45.1%, of which cumulative imports of caustic soda flakes totaled 8,500 tons and cumulative imports of caustic soda liquid totaled 400 tons. my country’s cumulative caustic soda exports totaled 4,101,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, of which cumulative exports of caustic soda flakes totaled 671,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 42.1%, and cumulative exports of caustic soda liquid totaled 3,429,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.1%.
Caustic soda prices were weak in January, with domestic downstream buyers mostly purchasing on an as-needed basis. Although upstream manufacturers have adjusted their maintenance plans, the decline in output is limited. Considering the overall supply and demand dynamics, caustic soda prices are expected to remain weak in the near future, depending on downstream market demand.
Post time: Feb-02-2026